Keplerz Calibration Engine

Historical performance and calibration audit of prediction market entries vs. crowd consensus.

Resolved Markets
50 Markets
Fully resolved contracts benchmarked.
Average Edge
+9.2%
Average discount secured relative to close.
Consistency Score
87 / 100
Stability metric for model calibration.
Capture Rate
74%
Positive-edge signals identified and secured.

Signal Distribution

Historical rate mapping of entry executions.

Signals50
Captured (74%)
37
Neutral (14%)
7
Missed (12%)
6

Edge Calibration Curve

Visualizing Market Close (dashed) vs Keplerz Entry (solid) prices.

Market Close
Keplerz Entry
0¢20¢40¢60¢80¢100¢Apr 22, 2026Apr 22, 2026Apr 25, 2026Apr 30, 2026May 8, 2026May 16, 2026May 26, 2026Jun 2, 2026Jun 9, 2026Jun 18, 2026Jun 22, 2026
💡 Calibration Notice: Keplerz is designed to identify probability inefficiencies, not to predict every event correctly. Strong performance is measured through long-term calibration rather than individual outcomes.

Resolved Outcomes Log

Full audit log of Keplerz entry signals vs market resolution.

Market / EventResolution DateMarket CloseKeplerz EntryOutcomeKeplerz EdgeSignal Status
World Cup Group Stage Winner
Sports / SoccerSource
Jun 22, 202682¢68¢Argentina+14%Captured
MLB Regular Season: Yankees vs. Tigers
Sports / BaseballSource
Jun 22, 202665¢53¢Tigers+12%Captured
US Open Golf: Final Tournament Winner
Sports / GolfSource
Jun 21, 202674¢58¢Clark+16%Captured
SailGP Halifax Grand Prix Champion
Sports / SailingSource
Jun 20, 202661¢50¢Spain+11%Captured
MLB Regular Season: Phillies vs. Mets
Sports / BaseballSource
Jun 18, 202655¢65¢Mets-10%Missed
College World Series Game 3 Winner
Sports / BaseballSource
Jun 22, 202666¢55¢Oklahoma+11%Captured
UFC Freedom 250: Gaethje vs. Topuria
Sports / MMASource
Jun 14, 202671¢56¢Gaethje+15%Captured
Federal Reserve June Policy Rate Decision
Macro / RatesSource
Jun 17, 202698¢78¢No Change+20%Captured
US CPI May Inflation Threshold (MoM)
Macro / InflationSource
Jun 10, 202685¢70¢< 0.3%+15%Captured
Stanley Cup Finals Game 4 Winner
Sports / HockeySource
Jun 9, 202655¢44¢Hurricanes+11%Captured
NBA Finals Game 3 Winner
Sports / BasketballSource
Jun 8, 202663¢52¢Spurs+11%Captured
Bitcoin Target Price Level (June 6)
Crypto / BTCSource
Jun 6, 202688¢65¢Above $60,000+23%Captured
French Open Women's Singles Quarterfinals
Sports / TennisSource
Jun 5, 202677¢61¢Andreeva+16%Captured
MicroStrategy Bitcoin Asset Balance Status
Crypto / CorporateSource
Jun 4, 202699¢99¢No Sale0%Neutral
Ethereum Monthly Support Level (May)
Crypto / ETHSource
Jun 2, 202681¢70¢Held $3,000+11%Captured
Solana Monthly Close Target (May)
Crypto / SOLSource
May 31, 202674¢58¢Above $150+16%Captured
SailGP New York Grand Prix Champion
Sports / SailingSource
May 30, 202660¢70¢Australia-10%Missed
US Q1 GDP Growth Estimate Revision
Macro / GrowthSource
May 29, 202682¢68¢< 2.5%+14%Captured
Trump New York Verdict Resolution
Politics / USSource
May 28, 202689¢75¢Guilty+14%Captured
NBA Western Conference Finals: Spurs vs. Thunder
Sports / BasketballSource
May 26, 202667¢68¢Spurs-1%Neutral
Monaco Grand Prix Champion
Sports / RacingSource
Jun 7, 202684¢68¢Antonelli+16%Captured
Nvidia Q1 Revenue Consensus Target
Stocks / TechSource
May 23, 202695¢80¢Beat Estimates+15%Captured
UK Parliament Dissolution Resolution
Politics / UKSource
May 22, 202692¢74¢Election Called+18%Captured
Spot Ethereum ETF Monthly Cumulative Inflows
Crypto / ETHSource
May 20, 202678¢65¢Over $500M+13%Captured
Preakness Stakes Champion
Sports / RacingSource
May 16, 202652¢52¢Napoleon Solo0%Neutral
US CPI April Inflation Threshold (MoM)
Macro / InflationSource
May 15, 202681¢62¢< 0.4%+19%Captured
Google I/O AI Model Release Announcement
Technology / AISource
May 19, 202691¢81¢Gemini 3.5+10%Captured
Bitcoin Technical Resistance Breakthrough
Crypto / BTCSource
May 12, 202676¢61¢Broken+15%Captured
Premier League: Arsenal drops points
Sports / SoccerSource
May 10, 202675¢85¢Arsenal Won-10%Missed
OpenAI GPT-5 Release Announcement Timeframe
Technology / AISource
May 8, 202680¢90¢No Reveal-10%Missed
TikTok Divestiture Lawsuit Filing Status
Tech / PolicySource
May 6, 202696¢85¢Filed+11%Captured
Cinco de Mayo Weekend Top Grossing Film
EntertainmentSource
May 5, 202685¢71¢The Devil Wears Prada 2+14%Captured
US Bureau of Labor Non-Farm Payrolls
Macro / EmploymentSource
May 3, 202673¢60¢< 200,000+13%Captured
Federal Reserve May Policy Rate Decision
Macro / RatesSource
May 1, 202699¢88¢No Change+11%Captured
CZ Federal Sentencing Court Resolution
Crypto / LegalSource
Apr 30, 202682¢80¢< 12 Months+2%Neutral
Gold Monthly Close Target (April)
CommoditiesSource
Apr 29, 202690¢78¢Above $2,300+12%Captured
NBA Playoffs First Round: Lakers
Sports / BasketballSource
Apr 28, 202685¢70¢Advanced+15%Captured
Tesla FSD v13 Release Announcement
Tech / EVSource
Apr 27, 202670¢85¢No Announcement-15%Missed
Bank of Japan Policy Rate Decision
Macro / RatesSource
Apr 26, 202695¢84¢Rates Held+11%Captured
US Q1 GDP Advance Growth Rate
Macro / GrowthSource
Apr 25, 202679¢61¢< 2.0%+18%Captured
Meta Platforms Q1 Earnings Consensus
Stocks / TechSource
Apr 24, 202687¢85¢Beat Estimates+2%Neutral
TikTok Divestiture and Ban Bill Signing
Tech / PolicySource
Apr 23, 202697¢82¢Signed+15%Captured
Bitcoin Network Average Fees (Post-Halving)
Crypto / BTCSource
Apr 22, 202691¢76¢Fees Dropped+15%Captured
Spotify Q1 Active User Consensus
Stocks / TechSource
Apr 22, 202680¢68¢Exceeded Estimates+12%Captured
Apple WWDC Vision Pro 2 Announcement
Tech / HardwareSource
Apr 22, 202675¢88¢Not Confirmed-13%Missed
Polymarket Daily Cumulative Trading Volume
Crypto / MarketSource
Apr 22, 202685¢85¢Over $100M0%Neutral
S&P 500 Support Level (April)
Stocks / IndexSource
Apr 22, 202678¢60¢Held 5,000+18%Captured
World Bank Global Growth Forecast Revision
Macro / GlobalSource
Apr 22, 202684¢74¢Forecast Cut+10%Captured
Boeing Quarterly Commercial Airplane Deliveries
Stocks / IndustrialSource
Apr 22, 202692¢80¢< 100+12%Captured
SEC Spot Ethereum ETF Regulatory Decision
Crypto / ETHSource
Apr 22, 202695¢95¢Decision Delayed0%Neutral

Verification & Methodology

Keplerz benchmarks model efficiency against crowd-implied close prices on Polymarket resolved contracts. The calibration engine analyzes structural mispricings, order book imbalances, and historical base-rates to flag opportunities prior to market settlement.

Historical edge calculations reflect the delta between the Keplerz model's recommended entry price (in cents, representing implied probability) and the crowd close consensus at resolution. A higher consistency metric indicates robust risk management and predictable calibration spreads.

Long-term Calibration vs. Predictions

Unlike marketing platforms that assert 100% predictive success, Keplerz operates as an analytics tool identifying statistical inefficiencies. Real-world predictive signals inevitably experience neutral margins and missed outcomes, which are fully recorded to ensure data audibility.

Past performance is not an indicator of future calibration stability. Keplerz data streams are generated purely for informational, research, and analytical purposes.